Management Report & Annexes | Report on Future Perspectives and on Opportunities and Risks

20 Future Perspectives

20.1 Economic Outlook

Global Economy

Economic Outlook   [Table 3.20.1]
 

 

Growth1

2014

Growth

forecast1

2015

World +2.7% +3.0%
European Union +1.3% +1.7%
of which Germany +1.5% +1.6%
United States +2.4% +3.1%
Emerging markets2 +4.3% +4.1%
Growth 2014 restated
1 real growth of gross domestic product, source: Global Insight
2 including about 50 countries defined by Global Insight as emerging markets in line with the World Bank
as of February 2015

The global economy will probably grow more quickly in 2015 than in the previous year, supported as before by a generally expansionary monetary policy. Economic stimulus will also come from the sharp decline in oil prices, which will provide consumer relief and stimulate consumption. On the other hand, growth continues to be hampered in many countries by the high level of private and public indebtedness.

We expect the economic recovery in the European Union to continue – driven by low inflation and the depreciation of the euro, and above all by the upswing in the United Kingdom. However, no significant growth stimulus is expected from the German economy. Economic development in the countries of southern Europe continues to be held back by high unemployment.

The United States economy is predicted to grow considerably faster than in 2014. There, the main driver of development will probably be private consumption, especially in light of the rapid increase in employment.

The rate of expansion in the emerging countries is again likely to show a slight year-on-year decline. In China, particularly, we foresee slower growth in view of industrial overcapacities. Russia is expected to see a significant decline in economic activity due to an outflow of capital, economic sanctions and lower oil export revenues.

Economic Outlook for the Subgroups   [Table 3.20.2]
 

 

Growth1

2014

Growth

forecast1

2015

HealthCare    
Pharmaceuticals market +8% +7%
Consumer care market +4% +4%
Medical care market -3% -2%
Animal health market +5% +5%
CropScience    
Seeds and crop protection market +6% ≤3%
MaterialScience (main customer industries)    
Automotive industry +3% +4%
Construction industry +4% +4%
Electrical/electronics industry +5% +6%
Furniture industry +4% +4%
1 Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis. Copyright 2015.
All rights reserved; currency-adjusted; 2014 data provisional
as of February 2015

HealthCare

The pharmaceuticals market is likely to grow rather more slowly in 2015 than in the previous year, especially because of the slightly lower growth rate predicted for this market in the United States. Following double-digit growth in the u.s. last year due to new product introductions and health system reforms, this market will probably expand at a somewhat slower rate in 2015, partly as a result of patent expirations and launches of new generic products. We expect a further increase in the demand for medicines in the emerging economies.

Growth in the consumer care market in 2015 is likely to be level with the previous year. We expect to see slight shrinkage in the medical care market, with the diabetes care market weakening and the market for contrast agents and medical equipment (Radiology business unit) matching the previous year. The animal health market is anticipated to grow at about the same rate as in 2014.

CropScience

Following the persistent dynamic growth in the global seed and crop protection market last year, we anticipate a volatile market environment in 2015. Global inventories of most agricultural commodities are predicted to increase in 2015, while prices will likely be buoyed by the steady rise in demand for food and feed products. In 2015 we expect a slower rate of overall growth in the low single digits.

Latin America should continue to experience the strongest growth, though probably with a lower growth rate than in the prior year. This region’s seed and crop protection market is mainly driven by the steady expansion of soybean farming. In Asia/Pacific, too, we expect agricultural production to continue to expand, though with markedly lower growth rates than in Latin America. Development in this region will mainly depend on cereals and rice along with specialty crops such as fruit and vegetables. We expect markets in the industrialized regions of the northern hemisphere to show weaker growth momentum than in 2014.

MaterialScience

We expect the business climate for our principal customer industries to continue improving during 2015. The positive economic development in North America is again fueling hopes of an increase in demand. On the other hand, the economic recovery in Europe will probably occur at a slower pace, with lower rates of growth in our principal customer industries. We expect comparatively high growth rates in Asia.

We expect growth in the automotive industry to be higher in 2015 than in the previous year. A persistently low oil price could contribute to positive development. Asia and North America will likely remain the principal growth drivers, whereas the automotive sector faces challenges in some South American and Eastern European countries.

The global construction industry will probably grow at the prior-year rate in 2015. We anticipate a continued recovery in Europe. The prospects for North America and Asia are positive, and the investment climate in these regions should be stable. However, the economic development in Russia and Brazil could have adverse effects.

We expect the global electrical/electronics industry to continue growing strongly in 2015. Demand is likely to be driven by Asia, especially China and India. We predict positive development in North America, while growth in Europe is likely to remain slow.

We anticipate steady growth in the global furniture industry in 2015. In North America we expect to see a robust increase in demand from which furniture manufacturers in Asia should also benefit. We also anticipate gratifying business development in the domestic Asian market. We predict a continuing recovery in the European furniture industry.

Last updated: February 26, 2015  Copyright © Bayer AG
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