Management Report & Annexes | Report on Future Perspectives and on Opportunities and Risks
20.2 Forecast for Key Data
The following forecast is based on the business development described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities and assuming the inclusion of the MaterialScience business for the full year.
Our forecast for fiscal 2015 is based on the exchange rates as of December 31, 2014, including a rate of us$1.21 to the euro. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales on an annual basis by some €300 million and ebitda before special items by about €70 million.
We are planning sales in the region of €46 billion for 2015. This corresponds to a currency- and portfolio-adjusted increase in the low single digits. We expect currency effects to boost sales by approximately 3% compared with the prior year. We plan to raise ebitda before special items by a low- to mid-teens percentage, allowing for expected positive currency effects of about 2%. We aim to increase core earnings per share (calculated as explained in Chapter 16.3 “Core Earnings Per Share”) by a low-teens percentage, allowing for expected positive currency effects of around 3%.
We expect to take special charges in the region of €700 million in 2015, with the integration of the acquired consumer care businesses and the planned stock market listing of MaterialScience accounting for most of this amount.
We intend to increase our research and development spending by about 10% in 2015 to more than €4.0 billion. We have budgeted capital expenditures of about €2.3 billion for property, plant and equipment and €0.3 billion for intangible assets. Depreciation and amortization are estimated at about €3.0 billion, including €1.6 billion in amortization of intangible assets.
We predict the financial result to come in at around minus €1.0 billion. The effective tax rate is likely to be around 25%. We expect net financial debt to be below €18 billion at the end of 2015.
At HealthCare we expect sales to post a mid-single-digit percentage increase on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis to approximately €23 billion. We predict positive currency effects of about 3% compared with 2014. We plan to raise ebitda before special items by a mid-teens percentage.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we expect sales to move ahead by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis to approximately €13 billion. Here we anticipate positive currency effects of about 2% compared with 2014. We intend to raise sales of our recently launched products in 2015 toward €4 billion. We plan to raise ebitda before special items by a low-teens percentage, allowing for an additional €300 million of investment in research and development. We therefore expect to slightly improve the ebitda margin before special items.
In the Consumer Health segment, we expect sales to increase toward €10 billion, including those of the acquired consumer care businesses. We plan to grow sales by a mid-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. Here we anticipate positive currency effects of around 3% compared with 2014. We expect to raise ebitda before special items by a mid-to-high-twenties percentage, with the acquired consumer care businesses contributing to the increase.
At CropScience we expect to continue growing faster than the market and to raise sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis to approximately €10 billion. We anticipate positive currency effects of about 4% compared with 2014. We plan to improve ebitda before special items by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage.
At MaterialScience we are planning further volume growth in 2015 accompanied by declining selling prices, leading to lower sales. However, we expect to see a significant increase in ebitda before special items. We aim to return to earning the full cost of capital in 2015.
In 2015 we expect sales on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis to be level with the previous year. We are planning ebitda before special items of approximately minus €0.3 billion.
As the holding company for the Bayer Group, Bayer AG derives most of its income from its subsidiaries. The earnings of the major subsidiaries in Germany are transferred directly to Bayer AG under profit and loss transfer agreements. The earnings of Bayer AG are therefore expected to reflect the positive business development anticipated in the Bayer Group. A concerted dividend policy within the Group ensures the availability of sufficient distributable income. We expect an increase in net interest expense due to the higher level of net debt. Based on these factors, we expect Bayer AG to report a distributable profit that will again enable our stockholders to adequately participate in the Bayer Group’s earnings.